Armenia's parliamentary elections on Sunday are a pivotal moment, with the country's future direction hanging in the balance. The election comes amid heightened tensions with Russia, which has imposed a series of trade restrictions, including a ban on Armenian cognac, in an apparent bid to discourage Armenia's westward tilt. This move has sparked a heated debate about the country's foreign policy and its relationship with Moscow.
The election is a test of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's policy of reorienting Armenia towards Europe, a significant shift from its post-Soviet history as Moscow's closest ally in the South Caucasus. Pashinyan's push for closer ties with the EU and his efforts to diversify Armenia's partnerships, including with the US and Ukraine, have been met with resistance from Russia, which fears losing influence in the region.
The situation is particularly complex given Armenia's deep economic dependence on Russia. Moscow has used trade restrictions as a form of political pressure, aiming to discourage Armenia's aspirations for European integration. The threat of a 'Ukrainian scenario' has been raised, implying potential consequences if Armenia continues its westward course. This has led to a heated political battle, with Pashinyan's main challenger, Samvel Karapetyan, a Russian-Armenian billionaire, advocating for closer ties with Moscow.
However, despite Russia's efforts, Pashinyan's party is expected to emerge as the largest political force, according to opinion polls. This is partly due to the opposition's perceived closeness to Russia, which has discredited them in the public's perception. Pashinyan's campaign focuses on a vision of Armenia as a regional transit hub, reconnecting long-closed borders and moving beyond decades of conflict. He emphasizes his desire for diversification rather than a complete divorce from Russia, while still maintaining a strong relationship with Moscow.
The election has also drawn international attention, with European leaders expressing their preference for a Pashinyan victory. This support comes despite concerns about Pashinyan's democratic record, including the detention of opposition activists. The EU has announced an initial economic support package to help Armenia withstand Russian trade pressure, while Ukraine has begun importing Armenian roses as a symbolic gesture of solidarity.
Despite these efforts, Russia retains significant economic and political leverage over Armenia. Moscow has hinted at potential changes in the subsidised gas agreement, which underpins much of Armenia's economy. This could lead to a real crisis if Armenia is forced to renegotiate the terms, highlighting the delicate balance the country must navigate in its foreign policy.
